Hilary Benn the Environment Secretary has forecast that the UK is getting hotter and we have to plan for more volatile weather extremes from droughts to floods.

 

Benn was speaking at the launch of the UK Climate Projections 2009 report (UKCP09) where he stated that the UK would still get hotter even though we may reduce our carbon emissions.  With London increasing its temperature between 2-6c’s by 2080.

 

The report predicts that the whole of the UK will be wetter in the winter and drier in the summer.  It also suggests that rainfall in the summer could be reduced by up to 20% in the South by 2050.

 

By utilising computer models the forecast have been compiled from analysing weather patterns across the World which enables forecasts for changes in temperature, rainfall and wind patterns. Scientists collated data from 400 variations of the climate computer model which was developed by the Hadley Centre. (Part of the Met Office). Every variant has been checked to see how well it predicted the climate of past decades; and then the numbers have been compared with projections against other computer models. This enabled scientists to then allocate probabilities for future forecast.

 

It is hoped that by issuing this report will enable UK citizens the government and business to make better plans to combat the forecasted changes.

 

If an effective global deal is made from the outcome of December’s UN climate talks in Copenhagen it could contribute to keeping the UK’s temperature rise to about 2c.  But if the emissions are not managed and greenhouse gases rise then the temperature could be a worrying 12c higher.