Without doubt the most anticipated event of the year is the United Nations Climate Change conference in Copenhagen being held between 7-18th December 2009.

This conference is the culmination of a road map set out in 2007 at the Bali negotiations that aimed to complete negotiations on reaching a secure climate future. Since Bali subsequent meetings in Bangkok, Bonn, Accra and Poznan have all been focused upon reaching an agreement at Copenhagen in December.  Throughout 2009 preliminary negotiations are taking place between the main parties involved to ensure agreement in Copenhagen is reached.  But what can we really expect?

The main negotiation group at Copenhagen will be the Conference of the Parties (COP) – and includes representatives from all nations involved.   The Copenhagen meeting in December is the 15th meeting of the COP and is the last stop in global talks to find a successor to the Kyoto Protocol which expires in 2012 and so Copenhagen will provide the policy regime for climate change world wide post 2012.

The main challenges are to reach a fair global consensus and clarity across the following three areas: 

• Setting targets for cutting emissions within the richer nations with tougher targets than those set out at Kyoto.
• Developing nations are unlikely to agree to legally binding targets but to agree on what are being labeled NAMAs (Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions) which would help ensure that the rapidly expanding economies of China & India for example would make measures to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions most likely in return for technological and financial help.
• Formal agreement on preservation of rainforests in return for carbon credits.

There is a great deal to play for at Copenhagen both in getting developing countries to agree to measures and to agree tough targets for the developed world.  It will come as no surprise that the key to a successful Copenhagen summit is getting the world’s largest polluters on board and to agree to targets.  Tough action needs to be taken to half world emissions by 2050 a level that scientists widely agree is the point that will stave off the worst impact of climate change. 

Targets like these have to include the whole world and some of the numbers being talked about are significant, for instance a 46% drop in US greenhouse gases by 2030 from 2005 levels, or China committing to limit greenhouse gas emissions to a 15% increase on the levels of 2005 which has been talked about since the publication of a report by McKinsey arguing that this would not hinder Chinese development. 

How likely a binding agreement is remains an unknown and China’s official stance is still one of “no binding commitments” with China’s current trend projected to double carbon emissions by 2030.  This is reflected in its rapid increase in coal production in which the increase alone in the 10 years from 2007 is projected to equal total coal consumption in Europe, Africa, the Middle East and Central and South America combined. The spotlight will be on the worlds largest economy and polluter to strike a deal and since Obama’s inauguration the US has thankfully changed direction from the Bush era.

Obama has called for a reduction in US greenhouse gases to 1990 levels by 2020, which is 16% below the 2005 levels, although any such legislation is dependent on Congress.  However green stimulus has already formed a large part of the economic stimulus packages in the US particularly those related to renewable energy and just last month the US Environmental Protection Agency found that greenhouses gases endanger public health.  In itself not a lightening bolt perhaps but this finding does mean that the EPA can regulate greenhouse gases and put pressure on Congress to regulate.  There does seem to be scope and energy for agreeing a historical agreement that can make a difference to the climates future and momentum seems to be gaining but we still seem to be a way off what climate campaigners everywhere would like to see.

In just over two weeks time (1st – 12th June) a number of subsidiary meetings in Bonn will be held to try and thrash out the details of the deal to be done in Copenhagen.

Prior to the main act of the year in Copenhagen and following Junes meeting in Bonn there is another meeting in Bonn in August, one in Bangkok in September and another in November at an as yet undetermined venue.